There will now be an extended period of adjustment
while President Trump's astonishingly large number
of executive orders are implemented. Some will be
quashed by court order; others will be delayed while
being challenged in court. Still others will require
legislation to take effect. Most, however, take effect
immediately, including those which rescind executive
orders by Mr. Trump’s predecessor.
The purpose of the volume and speed of these
executive actions is two-fold. First and foremost is
the new president’s need to fulfill a large number of
campaign promise for which he feels he received the
decisive voter mandate on election day less than
three months ago.
Secondly, although his party also won control of both
houses of Congress in the election, the Republican’s
majorities in both are small, and Mr. Trump’s ability
to push through legislation enacting his administration’s
agenda is greatest when he likely has the most popularity
and influence, i.e., in the months right after his election
and inauguration.
Both of these are in the context that this is President
Trump’s second, and therefore last, term. After the
mid-term elections (in 2026), a second-term president
usually has diminished power as a so-called lame duck.
At that point, members of the U.S. House and Senate
frankly often see their re-elections as a greater priority
than being team players.
Already, three members of the Senate have bucked the
confirmation of a cabinet appointment, and could do
so again. It would take only a very few Republican
House members to block votes. Now, at a peak of the
new president’s popularity, GOP senators and
congresspersons are much less likely to defy him.
Democrats in recent years have voted primarily as a
bloc when in the majority. It is likely, especially in
2025, they will do so again. Mavericks in the previous
Senate, Manchin and Sinema are gone, and only
Senator Fetterman (D-PA) has so far given any
indication he will sometimes vote independently.
Democrats, however, are still reeling from the 2024
elections, and will take some time to fully recover
their political footing to effectively oppose Mr.
Trump. As the 2026 mid-term elections approach,
however, they are likely to regain political strength,
and this further is an incentive for Mr. Trump and
his party to enact their policies and program
sooner rather than later.
What is unknown, of course, is whether or not the
Trump initiatives and policies will succeed.
Historically, the first two years of a new
administration often are problematic, especially
economically. Mr. Trump, however is a political
rarity, serving his second term after losing his
re-election in 2020, so historical precedent might
not apply, especially since Mr. Trump has led a
significant electoral realignment making working
class and ethnic voters a new base of his party.
In 2026, the economy will very likely again be the
main issue. The immigration issue by that time
will likely be essentially resolved, but inflation
might not go away. The GOP will lower taxes, but
it is less clear they will be able to lower federal
spending —- a necessary part of successful
conservative economic policy, especially in
controlling inflation, maintaining high
employment, and reducing the federal deficit.
Every liberal spending and welfare program has
a constituency, and just issuing an executive
order might make economic reform much more
difficult than it seems, especially since Mr. Trump
has pledged to revive the sagging U.S. military
and defense. Some of the reforms will be easier,
including ending or reducing the U.S. contributions
to international organizations and programs
which do not reflect U.S. interests. Trump-induced
resolution of current international conflicts could
also help reduce spending. But these are relatively
small compared to the bulk of federal outflow,
U.S. domestic programs, and this is the real
challenge facing President Trump and his
administration.
The 2024 national election campaign was one for
the books. The results indicate that going into
new political territory will likely not be limited to
the campaign season.
The first several months of the second Trump
administration will likely be, with all of the
current foreign and domestic problems and
challenges, as unprecedented and politically
colorful as the year which came before.
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Copyright (c) 2025 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.
